The Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs has commissioned Economix to carry out a long-term forecast of the German labour market. The aim is to identify sectoral, occupational and regional imbalances and to draw policy conclusions in a combination of strategic scenarios and quantitative forecasts.
By Kurt Vogler-Ludwig, Nicola Düll, Ben Kriechel
(Projection 2016; W. Bertelsmann Verlag)
By Kurt Vogler-Ludwig, Nicola Düll, Ben Kriechel
(Fachexpertisen zur Prognose 2016; W. Bertelsmann Verlag)
By Nicola Düll
By Kurt Vogler-Ludwig
- Arbeitsmarkt 2030 - Die Bedeutung der Zuwanderung für Beschäftigung und Wachstum
(Projection 2014; W. Bertelsmann Verlag),
Download (E-Book)
- Arbeitsmarkt 2030 – Eine strategische Vorausschau auf Demografie, Beschäftigung und Bildung in Deutschland
(Projection 2012; W. Bertelsmann Verlag)
- The German Labour Market 2030 - A strategic view on demography, employment and education
(Projection 2012; Translation into English by Louise Rotter; published by W. Bertelsmann Verlag as an e-book; it can be ordered from Ebooks.com.
- Arbeitsmarkt 2030 – Fachexpertisen und Szenarien. Trendanalyse und qualitative Vorausschau
(W. Bertelsmann Verlag; e-book publication; open access)
- Arbeitsmarkt 2030 - Methodenbericht. Beschreibung der quantitativen Modelle
(W. Bertelsmann Verlag; e-book publication; open access)
- Arbeitsmarkt 2030 – Prognose nach Bundesländern
(Report: Economix Research& Consulting, 2014)
- Arbeitsmarkt 2030 – Arbeitskräftebedarf kleiner, mittlerer und großer Betriebe
(Report : Economix Research & Consulting, 2014)
All results have been published by W. Bertelsmann Verlag.
The press release on the publication of the first forecast is available in German and in English.
Description
The German Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs has asked Economix to provide an analysis of future labour demand and supply by developing a new skills forecasting model for Germany. The project should provide "regular, transparent and detailed evaluations about future developments on the German labour market”. A forecasting model has been developed by an international consortium that consists of the Institute for Employment Research at Warwick University, Cambridge Econometrics and ROA at Maastricht University, which will help to identify future labour market imbalances and will propose policies to ensure that there is a sufficiently qualified labour force.
A model that forecasts the future solely based on extrapolation of past trends would fail given the recent financial and economic crisis. It is more realistic to assume that there are several structural breaks in historic time series through the recent crisis, globalization of economies and labour markets, and social changes. We have therefore combined mathematical forecasting models with qualitative future scenarios. This enables us to have a preview of the fundamental changes that the both the economy and society faces, which we can include in the empirical forecasting model.