Arbeitsmarkt 2030 - Eine strategische Vorausschau auf Demografie, Beschäftigung und Bildung
Author: Kurt Vogler-Ludwig, Nicola Düll, Ben Kriechel, translated by Louise Rotter
Client: Bundesministerium für Arbeit und Soziales
Publisher: W. Bertelsmann Verlag
What will be the shape of the German economy and its labour market in 20 years time? Beyond combining qualitative scenarios and mathematical methods in a professional forecast, the report raises the questions how politics, entrepreneurs and the labour force should act in face of demographic change and international competition. In a breakdown by 44 economic sector, 88 occupational groups and 27 fields of vocational training, the study provides detailed insights into the future of work in Germany.
The results show that Germany will transform from a service-oriented into a knowledge-oriented economy with new jobs in business services, financial services and education, health and social services. Manufacturing, trade and transport, and public service, however, will clearly reduce the number of jobs. The growth potential of the German economy will be determined by skills shortages: The higher the investments in human capital the better the opportunities for growth.